Weekend 200.0 (Post NYCC)

Playmobil Lechuza(1) MTA Swipes Show Subway Trends (WSJ)

Wait for the A train at the Aqueduct Racetrack stop, and one in four people standing with you will likely be a senior citizen. But at the Bedford Avenue stop on the L train—in the middle of hipster Williamsburg—less than 1% use a senior-discount MetroCard.

(2) Why the Grass Seems Greener (WSJ)

Focusing illusion – Using a specific attribute of a thing or experience to answer a broader and more difficult question.

“Belief in the Law of Small Numbers” – Paying more attention to the content of messages than to information about their reliability. The effect is a view of the world around us that is simpler and more coherent than the data justify.

The Kahneman/Tversky Counter-Assumption – Human beings are not rational decision-makers who weigh all the relevant factors logically before making choices.

Linda problem – The conjunction of two things must be less probable than one of those two things alone.

Conjunction fallacy – Illustrates a broader pattern—of human reasoning being distorted by systematic biases.

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