A wise short seller once told us the secret of his profession: People always underestimate how bad things can get. That is, they see the cliff coming and put faith in decision-makers to avoid the cliff. The problem with the metaphor is there is no cliff, just a succession of decision points in a worsening situation. Have no fear that our decision-makers will impose both fiscal austerity and inflation on us when it becomes absolutely unavoidable. The momentous question is whether they will do anything productive in the meantime.
(2) Inflation inflicting pain, as wages fail to keep pace with price hikes
But the current price spike is in some ways more pernicious than the last great U.S. inflation — the steep increases of the 1970s — and harder for policymakers to address. Today, raising interest rates might make a weak economy even weaker, stifling what meager growth there has been in wages. Moreover, higher interest would make the nation’s massive budget deficits even more expensive to finance, taking an additional toll on the economy.
(3) Commodities Challenge Bernanke Inflation View: Chart of the Day